It doesn't take a constitutional expert to understand the huge impact that the six state elections will have on the coalition hurriedly stitched together in Putrajaya some nine months ago.

But it seems even the prime minister and the person he appointed as the law minister cannot comprehend this reality, although perhaps the probability of it happening is so painful that they choose not to acknowledge it.

The fear of becoming the shortest-reigning federal government in Malaysia's history is understandable.

The same goes for the likelihood of being mentioned in future historical anecdotes on how there was once a man who fought the longest time for the prime ministerial chair, only to sit on it for the shortest time.

However, even such a fear does not justify denying the reality of this modern democracy that we have so religiously embraced.

One nincompoop cites the anti-hopping law, which bars MPs from changing parties after elections, as the reason the outcome of the six state elections will have no bearing on the federal government.

Meanwhile, law minister Azalina Othman Said, echoing the prime minister, even said that there was nothing in the constitution that allowed state election outcomes to affect the federal government!

Well, Azalina, by that logic, there's nothing in the constitution to say that the federal government will remain if its coalitions lose in the states.

And nothing in the same constitution says that women can wear pants, either!

Depending on which side you're on, here's the bitter truth.

The anti-hopping law cannot prevent the likelihood of the federal government being replaced outside of a general election.

Under Article 43 of the Federal Constitution, MPs are entitled to support any MP for the post of prime minister, and there's no obligation upon them to follow the party line or that of their party president.

The anti-hopping law has not stopped this right.

In the aftermath of the 15th general election, the 26 Umno MPs took the option of following their president's directive to support Anwar Ibrahim. They were perhaps convinced that by being part of the government despite the trashing they received, Umno could at least rebuild its fortunes.

All eyes are on how Umno will fare at the coming state polls.

A near wipeout for Umno will mean many of its MPs coming to the realisation that their support for Anwar has not reversed their party's fortunes; it has only pushed them to the brink of extinction, if that was not already the case.

In such a scenario, there's little that Ahmad Zahid Hamidi can do.

So yes, the state polls will have a bearing on the federal government.

Anwar knows this better than anyone else, which is why he has been crisscrossing the peninsula on a government helicopter to ensure that PMX does not come to denote the PM for 10 months.

Abdar Rahman Koya is CEO & editor of MalaysiaNow.