Who BN has to thank if it wins in Johor

With just four days to go before the Johor state election, the odds seem to favour Barisan Nasional (BN) emerging victorious.

For the first time in Johor, 10 political parties and coalitions along with numerous independent candidates will be contesting for a spot in the 56-seat legislative assembly.

In total there are 239 electoral candidates which means the margin for victory will be very slim among the contenders.

While the two main contenders are BN and Pakatan Harapan, the numerous other political parties play a crucial role in determining the results.

In fact, BN should be grateful to parties like Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), Muda, Warisan and others as indirectly, they are strategically assisting in splitting the opposition votes.

This is similar to what happened in Melaka where Perikatan Nasional (PN) caused a split in votes.

With this split in votes, BN actually only won 38% of the popular vote, but managed to grab nearly two-thirds of the seats. PH got 37% and PN managed 25%.

So, basically though BN may be unpopular among the majority of voters, it again stands a good chance for victory due to the presence of these smaller parties.

Political observers can attest to this as many have commented that the more candidates there are in each state constituency, the bigger the advantage to BN in securing its mandate.

While BN may have its vote bank of loyalists, the opposition vote will be divided by the new parties that have formed since the 2018 general election.

There is not a single straight fight in Johor and the bulk of the 35 four-cornered contests are in Malay-majority and some semi-urban seats, where BN is confident it can win.

In GE14, BN lost the state after managing to secure only 18 seats.

So, the “End Game” is that BN has not really regained the confidence of voters, but instead should bow and thank the “Avengers” like PBM, Muda, Warisan and the other smaller parties for swinging things in their favour.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of MalaysiaNow.