In a first, non-Malay reps dominate Selangor ruling bloc

For the first time, non-Malay elected representatives form the majority in Selangor's ruling bloc, a problematic reality for the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) alliance which has spent the last nine months trying to fight off a reputation of being spurned by Malay voters.

The outcome also followed an intense online campaign by PH sympathisers ahead of the closing of polling stations on Aug 12, urging supporters to come out and vote or face the prospect of Perikatan Nasional (PN) winning states currently under PH.

The last time Selangor saw non-Malays dominating the legislative assembly was at the 1969 elections, when the Umno-led National Alliance, the precursor of BN, suffered major losses at the hands of the Chinese-dominated DAP and Gerakan, which together with an independent candidate saw a tie of 14-14. 

The Alliance then managed to form the government only by getting the sole independent on its side, although the racially charged post-election climate later triggered one of the country's worst racial riots.

The 1969 election results were however against a backdrop of the Chinese being the majority ethnic group in Selangor, which had a population of some 1.6 million at that time. 

Statistics from 1970 showed the Chinese made up about 46% in Selangor, while Malays comprised 35%, and Indians 18%.

A combination of interstate migration, high birth rates and the opening of new townships saw the Malays steadily becoming the majority race during the early 1980s.

According to the 2020 census, Malays formed 60.6% of the 6.4 million population, followed by Chinese (27.3%) and Indians (11.3%).

While this racial breakdown is fairly reflected in the state assembly – 38 of the 56 assemblymen or about 68% are Malays – the bulk of them are not in the ruling bloc.

Only 16 of the 34 PH-BN assemblymen are Malays.

Meanwhile, PN's 22 assemblymen form the biggest Malay opposition bloc in the history of Selangor.

The nearest comparison to this was when BN lost Selangor in the 2008 election, relegating the 18 Malay assemblymen from Umno to the opposition bench. Umno's share was reduced to 12 in 2013, and just four in 2018.

In these three elections, PH had a strong Malay partner in various forms: PAS in 2008 and 2013, and Bersatu in 2018.

This was not the case last Saturday where Umno, already trounced by PN in the general election last year, managed to deliver only two seats after losing to Bersatu and PAS candidates, a situation replicated in Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

Jostle for posts

The outcome of the elections in Selangor, whose racial demographics generally reflect that of the country at large, will complicate efforts by the PH-BN alliance to fight the perception that it came to power on the back of non-Malay support.

All eyes will be on DAP and how it manages its dominance in Selangor. 

Just before the elections, the party had demanded the speaker's post, saying this was in exchange for the Dusun Tua seat being given to an Umno candidate. It was one of only two seats represented by a DAP Malay assemblyman.

The jostle for positions in the 12 local councils in Selangor will also be watched, where ruling parties are often allocated posts as councilors.

This time around, with Umno in the picture, the party is likely to demand more representation in local councils, which could ruffle feathers among NGOs and activists who have blamed the party for past abuses.

Turnout politics

Meanwhile, questions remain on why PN was unable to capture more seats in Selangor despite its large Malay population – a segment that has strongly supported the coalition.

For now, the obvious answer lies in the turnout, which was 72% in Selangor.

A larger turnout of Malay voters last weekend could have seen PN winning more seats in the state, especially in densely populated semi-urban and urban seats with a large Malay electorate.

PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin also recognised this, saying the coalition would have been able to capture the state had there been a bigger turnout.

While there is no accurate method to measure turnout based on race, PH supporters launched an intense online campaign to get the Chinese, seen as the coalition's safe deposit since 2008, to go out and cast their ballots.

As hourly statistics showed low turnouts in several major towns with large Chinese electorates, several PH leaders and supporters took to social media with viral messages and graphics urging the people to vote, many of which were written in Chinese.

Even academic Wong Chin Huat, who has branded himself as an independent political analyst, uploaded a Facebook post claiming a "visibly low turnout of Chinese and Indian voters".

"Brace yourself for Selangor and Negeri Sembilan becoming more like Kedah after tonight," said Wong, who was later caught in intense exchanges with netizens who criticised his post for being alarmist.

"Why must brace yourself?" asked one comment, to which Wong replied: "Just because you like Sanusi, I can't even brace such a prospect?", referring to popular Kedah PAS leader Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor. "Do you remember why we are made differently?" asked Wong.

Others such as controversial DAP spokesman Hew Kuan Yaw were also actively campaigning, repeatedly warning of "green wave" coming to power.

"If there is an average growth rate of 5% per hour, the average voter turnout in all five states should break 70%, except in Kelantan, hehehehe," he said in one of many Chinese posts warning that more Malays were coming out.

DAP's Subang Jaya candidate Michelle Ng meanwhile urged people to observe whether those around them had their fingers stained with ink to show that they had voted.

"If you have cast your votes and are out for lunch, please observe those with clean fingers and tell them and make sure they go out and vote," she said in a video posted at 1pm on polling day.