Khairy says PN victory in Selangor 'not impossible' if Malay tide against PH-BN grows

Khairy Jamaluddin says Pakatan Harapan (PH) could still retain Selangor despite what is seen as a losing battle to woo Malay support through its newfound partner Umno, but that even this is contingent on the ability to maintain an assumed share of 37% of the community's vote. 

Listing three scenarios offered in surveys linked to rival parties so far, Khairy referred to figures from the Johor state polls which were conducted independently of the general election last year.

He said PH and Barisan Nasional (BN), the latter to be represented by only Umno candidates, would likely secure overwhelming support from non-Malay voters as well as some 37% of Malay support after taking into account factors such as the shift in Malay ground towards Perikatan Nasional (PN). 

"This scenario will still see PH-BN prevailing in 34 seats compared to PN’s 22 seats," he said.

But even a 5% drop in Malay support for PH would see PN coming to power in Selangor, he added.

"In this case, PH-BN will win 27 seats and PN will win Selangor with 29 seats. What this suggests is that only a modest shift in Malay support by 5% compared to the previous scenario is needed to see PH-BN lose Selangor," he wrote in an article published by Singapore government-linked think tank Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Khairy said a PN victory in Selangor, where the outcome would be seen as a referendrum on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's eight-month-old administration, was "not entirely impossible". 

"Much will, of course, depend on the campaign to see if the non-Malays can be convinced to turn out in large numbers and if the Malays continue to give Anwar and his coalition and their partners the overwhelming support he desires."

He said Umno, having recently purged the party of those critical of its president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, might shrug off another dismal electoral performance.

Anwar, on the other hand, would have to "think long and hard" about the future of his alliance with Umno, he said. 

"If Umno turns out to be a liability during these state elections, will he want to commit himself to future electoral pacts with Umno and BN? 

"Or will he treat Umno and BN as a temporary partner to ensure the longevity of his 'unity government' until the end of this parliamentary term and then decide on alternative potential configurations that will not include Umno and BN?" he asked.

The crowd attendance at PN events in recent days has boosted the coalition's confidence of capturing Selangor, where PH in various forms has been ruling since 2008.

Earlier this week, tens of thousands gathered in Taman Medan, a working-class Malay neighbourhood in Petaling Jaya, where PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin announced 56 candidates to contest the coming polls.

"If 90% of the Malays turn out to vote, we will win," the former prime minister said. 

"This does not mean that the votes of the Chinese and Indians are not important. But in Selangor, the majority of voters are from the Malay community."

But a think tank linked to the Selangor PH government, Institut Darul Ehsan, appeared to dismiss predictions of the Malays turning down the coalition once again.

Instead, it claimed that more than 70% of Selangor voters support Anwar, and predicted an almost clean sweep of seats with only three of them going to PN.

Meanwhile, Reuters quoted political analyst Bridget Welsh, who said only 11% of Malays had voted for PH during the last general election.

She also spoke of an overall shift of Malay voters towards PN, citing disillusionment with Umno, higher living costs, and Anwar's handling of the economy. 

PN's charge in Selangor is being led by former menteri besar Mohamed Azmin Ali, who will be contesting in Hulu Klang.

There, he will face PH's Juwairiya Zulkifli, a political aide of his former protege and current menteri besar Amirudin Shari.