Tough fight as Malays remain firmly on PN's side, Singapore daily reports

Singapore's Berita Minggu said the upcoming six state elections will see the alliance of Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) take a beating, quoting analysts who say the Malay ground has still not shifted away from Perikatan Nasional (PN) since the last general election.

The paper quoted one seasoned analyst as saying that there are strong indications of power changing hands in Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, the latter being the frontline state for both PH-BN and PN in their campaigns.

Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said PN stands a chance to form the government in Negeri Sembilan, adding that there will be a tough fight in Selangor.

He said the current sentiments on the Malay ground are a reflection of the situation elsewhere in the Muslim world.

"This is based on a long observation of Malaysian politics, the rise of political Islam in the country as well as global developments, in particular the resurgence of Islam not only in Malaysia but also in Turkey and Indonesia," he told Berita Minggu, the weekend edition of Singapore's top Malay daily Berita Harian. 

Meanwhile, Norshahril Saat said due to the new political alignments, it would be more difficult to predict the outcome of polls this time, although the three states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu could see the strengthening of the PAS administration due to Umno supporters' shift towards PN.

"Penang is a stronghold of DAP; the only difference is how the people in the state respond to the cooperation between DAP and Umno at the federal level. 

"Selangor and Negeri Sembilan are quite difficult to predict, as each coalition has its own strengths," said Norshahril, a senior fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said while he expects the status quo in terms of parties helming the six state governments, PH-BN's share of seats will see a reduction compared to the number won by PH when it contested on its own.

"The Malays' suspicion towards the unity government is still very strong," Fauzi said.

"This isn't only linked to a 'religious wave' (green wave), but a more general sentiment related to the government's failure to deal with the cost of living issues after seven months, as well as the Malay community's objection to Umno that is seen as mired in corruption," he said. 

The 'green wave', a reference to PAS' signature green colour, is a euphemism used by DAP leaders to describe PN's gains in the last general election but is seen as derogatory and Islamophobic by PAS sympathisers.

Fauzi said the upcoming polls will see a repeat of past trends when PAS "automatically" becomes their party of choice whenever there is dissatisfaction with Umno.

BN suffered its worst election defeat in the general election last year, with PN emerging victorious in seats traditionally won by Umno.

Observers and pollsters have indicated that the trend will repeat at the state polls.

A recent survey published by Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies found that the majority of those who voted for Umno in the general election would now back PN candidates instead of PH-BN.

The survey said the trend is reflected in 39 Malay majority seats in Selangor and spells the end of PH's 15-year rule in the country's wealthiest state.

Oh, Norshahril and Fauzi do not rule out the impact on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's coalition government at the federal level should PH-BN finish badly at the state polls.

Fauzi said that while "in theory" the federal government may remain, there could be pressures from the Umno grassroots to reevaluate the party's support for Anwar.

He added that in the event of an Umno exit, support from Sarawak's GPS and others in Sabah could also be affected, as they would evaluate "better offers" dangled by PN.

For Oh, Anwar's government is at risk in the event of a defeat at the state polls.

"Individual MPs who currently support Anwar will think twice following the results. They will remain with their parties so as not to violate the anti-party hopping law but may declare support for the PN leader to become prime minister.

"If enough of them do that, Anwar will lose his majority (in Parliament)," Oh added.