PH rule in Selangor not to be taken for granted, says analyst

An analyst has cautioned against taking for granted a Pakatan Harapan (PH) victory in Selangor, citing the shift in Malay support towards Perikatan Nasional (PN) during the 15th general election (GE15) last year. 

Ahmad Atory Hussain of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the general view of Selangor as a "safe state" for PH might no longer hold, and that PN's goal of winning 33 of the 56 state seats was in fact possible. 

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, he said whether or not PN would be able to form the government would be determined in part by the rural voters in about 20 state constituencies. 

But he said it would also depend on the trend of Malay votes, which he described as uncertain. 

"Malay voters in Selangor cannot be compared with Malay voters in the east coast or the Chinese voters in Penang, who are consistent in voting for one party," he said. 

"For example, we can expect the Malays in the east coast to vote for PAS while the Chinese in Penang will likely choose DAP. 

"But the Malays in Selangor are more flexible which makes their voting pattern difficult to predict."

Selangor, previously ruled by Barisan Nasional (BN), fell to PH's predecessor Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in 2008.

PR, comprising PKR, DAP and PAS at the time, took over the state administration after winning 36 seats in the legislative assembly. 

Its margin of victory rose further in 2013, with PR taking 44 seats in the assembly. 

PR was rebranded as PH in 2018 with PAS' departure from the coalition. The Islamist party was replaced in PH by its splinter party, Amanah. 

Known as the richest state in the country, Selangor has long been a target for political parties across the divide.

Within the legislative assembly, PH currently holds 41 seats. PN holds seven, BN five and Pejuang three. 

'PN spread'

Atory said PN's success in taking parliamentary seats such as Tanjung Karang and Sungai Besar – both seen as BN strongholds – and its gains in PH-dominated areas like Hulu Selangor, Kapar and Kuala Langat showed that it was being accepted in places beyond the east coast. 

"There are also current developments such as the cooperation between PH and BN, Umno's internal conflicts, and other issues such as the political appointments made despite PH's opposition to the practice during its time in the opposition," he said. 

"All of these things will play a role. If PH is not careful, it should not be surprised if PN's momentum spreads to Selangor. It's not impossible that PN will form the state government." 

On the ground, some voters in rural areas such as Dusun Tua where Malays make up more than 60% of the electorate said they were still undecided ahead of the election to come. 

Mohd Akhir Dutan, from Kampung Padang, said the constituency had been an Umno stronghold from 1974 to 2013. 

Akhir, who has lived in the area for 63 years, said support then shifted towards PAS before DAP's victory in 2018. 

He told MalaysiaNow that many residents were supporters of Umno, but were now reluctant to vote for the party due to its cooperation with long-time foe DAP. 

"It's possible that they won't turn out to vote, or that they'll choose a party other than Umno like PAS or Bersatu," he added. 

"The political situation now is also very confusing. Before, Umno said one thing but now they are doing something else. 

"No one expected them to join forces with PH, which has been their enemy for so long." 

In Tanjung Karang, meanwhile, resident Farahin Adha said much would depend on whether the area's former MP, Noh Omar, would link up with PN. 

Citing rumours to this effect, Farahin said Noh, who was sidelined at GE15 due to perceived clashes with Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and later sacked from BN, still had strong influence in the constituency. 

"Noh's influence is stronger than BN's in this area," he said. 

"But it will also depend on the situation, and any number of issues like the cost of living."