Dilemma for PH voters if Najib is freed

Analysts see a dilemma for Pakatan Harapan (PH) voters as talk continues on Umno's efforts to obtain a royal pardon for jailed former leader Najib Razak, against a backdrop of the coalition's long struggle against corruption and kleptocracy.

PH came to power at the 2018 general election on a wave of discontent over Najib and his involvement in the 1MDB scandal, toppling six decades of Barisan Nasional (BN) rule. 

It joined hands with its long-time foe in order to form the government again after the inconclusive results of the 15th general election last year.

Political analyst Azmil Tayeb said the move now towards a pardon for Najib and, eventually his freedom, would be a huge disappointment for PH voters.

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, Azmil of Universiti Sains Malaysia said it would also have an impact on Anwar's reputation as a champion of the reformasi cause. 

"If Najib walks free, it will also give Perikatan Nasional (PN) more ammunition at the state elections to come," he said, referring to the opposition coalition. 

"I think it will be difficult for PH to sidestep this issue. It's possible that voters will choose not to turn out at the state elections." 

PH currently forms the administration in three of the states facing elections this year: Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

The other three – Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan – are under PN. 

Najib, who was convicted in 2020 of criminal breach of trust, money laundering and abuse of power in relation to SRC International, lost his final bid for a review of his conviction and sentence last month. 

Umno subsequently said it was seeking an audience with Yang di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah to plead for a pardon for its former president. 

Najib still wields strong support among the Umno grassroots, and analysts have warned of possible cracks over the matter in the alliance between PH and BN.

Analyst Mazlan Ali however said that Najib would face an uphill climb in his quest for a royal pardon. 

"Najib is still facing many ongoing and future cases in court," he said. 

"How can the Pardons Board consider the matter if Najib has yet to serve part of his sentence?

"What if he is sentenced again in his other cases?"

Mazlan, of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, added that Article 42(8) prohibits the Agong from making a personal decision on the matter. 

"Najib's chances are not good," he said. "He'll need a miracle."   

Mazlan agreed that support for PH would be affected but said nothing was written in stone. 

"Politics has its highs and lows," he said. "My latest research in five state seats in Negeri Sembilan shows that support for PH and BN is still strong." 

Najib is not the only Umno leader trying to steer clear of jail. 

Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi recently submitted a representation asking for the 47 charges against him in the Yayasan Akalbudi case to be dropped, shortly after regaining his passport from the court.

Last September, he was acquitted by the High Court of 40 charges of corruption related to the overseas visa system.