BN-PH collaboration not enough to defeat PN in east coast, say analysts

Analysts see Umno's willingness to allocate seats in the Terengganu legislative assembly to Pakatan Harapan (PH) ahead of the state election expected this year as a signal that the party may be losing Malay support, especially in the east coast. 

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, they said Umno was attempting to avoid a clash with PH in the state, thereby increasing its chances of winning while at the same time proving the sincerity of its cooperation with the pact led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. 

But Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said that even with PH at its side, Barisan Nasional (BN) would not be strong enough to take on Perikatan Nasional (PN), particularly in east coast states. 

He said the proposed distribution of seats might be motivated by the fact that both coalitions were losing influence in the area. 

"In general, PH and BN are being increasingly rejected in these states, so they are becoming more generous with one another," he said. 

In PH-ruled states, Oh said, seat negotiations would be fierce as both PH and BN would be more confident of winning.

Jeniri Amir, a senior fellow at the National Council of Professors, agreed, saying Umno's willingness to share seats showed that it was no longer able to move alone.

He said Umno would likely give way to PH, especially in areas it was unlikely to win.

"Right now, they don't have the support of the Malays, so cooperation with PH is important," he said. 

"Only with a strong partnership between the pacts can Umno or BN have any hope of winning. They can't do it alone – they need the support of PH." 

Terengganu and Kelantan were both captured by PN at the Nov 19 general election last year, while the majority of seats in Pahang – a long-time Umno stronghold – likewise fell to the coalition led by Muhyiddin Yassin.

Another six elections will be held at the state level this year, in Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu which did not dissolve their legislative assemblies in tandem with Parliament last October.