Umno or Bersatu, PAS' GE15 dilemma

As momentum builds ahead of the 15th general election (GE15), to be held within the next two months, attention has turned to PAS and its unique position between the country's remaining major Malay parties, arch-enemies Bersatu and Umno.

Through the years, PAS, a veteran of Malaysia's political scene, has worked with parties of all stripes, from Parti Negara in 1959 to DAP and PKR under Barisan Alternatif and, later, Pakatan Rakyat.

Following the collapse of the Barisan Nasional (BN) government at the 2018 general election, PAS formed the Muafakat Nasional pact with Umno as part of efforts to unite the Muslim community. 

However, it is also a founding member of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, led by Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin who has frequently spoken out against the group of Umno leaders known as the court cluster. 

While PN was established in February 2020 with the support of Umno, its president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi later said that the party had never joined PN in any official capacity. 

Now, with Bersatu and Umno eschewing any form of cooperation with the other ahead of GE15, the question is: on which side will PAS find itself come election day?

Veteran observer Chandra Muzaffar said it was still too early to predict PAS' direction in forming political cooperation. 

Speaking to MalaysiaNow, he said coalitions could be formed both before and after GE15. 

He added that PAS itself could still be unclear about the position of BN and PN, both of whom appear to have internal problems of their own. 

Chandra said it was no secret that BN was riddled with factions – a development that posed a major headache for the coalition. 

"It's difficult to say which individual or group truly represents the voice of the party," he said. 

"Is it Zahid, or someone else like Najib Razak? Or Khairy Jamaluddin or Hishammuddin Hussein?

"It's very unclear because of all of these factions," he added. 

Zahid, who is among the court cluster leaders facing criminal charges, previously issued PAS an ultimatum, saying the Islamist party would have to fulfil three conditions if it wished to work with Umno in GE15. 

He said PAS would have to leave PN, cut ties with Bersatu, and officially confirm that it had no further links with either the coalition or the party. 

Umno vice-president Mohamed Khaled Nordin however said later that PAS had failed to meet these conditions. 

PAS itself said that Zahid's conditions were unsuitable and did not reflect Umno's official stand.

BN versus PN

Political analyst Mujibu Abd Muis said that cooperation with Umno would benefit PAS more in terms of grassroots support, given the firm footing of the BN lynchpin.

He said this could carry PAS to victory in the seats it chose to contest. 

However, Mujibu of Universiti Teknologi Mara said Umno would likely emerge as the "big brother" or dominant partner in this relationship. 

PAS itself would occupy a lower position but would have an easier time forming the government, he said. 

If, on the other hand, PAS chose to work with Bersatu, he said, it would have more clout.

He said it would also be viewed with more respect by other political parties as its position appeared to be stronger and more stable with PN. 

"But its chances of winning seats in the election might be lower than if it were to work with Umno," he said.