Is BN ready, analysts ask amid calls for early GE

Analysts warn that Barisan Nasional (BN) must be fully prepared to face a general election as calls persist for early polls despite nearly a year remaining before Parliament must be dissolved next July. 

Among the strongest proponents of an early election has been Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who leads BN lynchpin party Umno.

Similar calls have also been made by party leaders aligned with those in the court cluster.

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is an Umno vice-president, has however maintained that he will only consider dissolving Parliament to pave the way for the 15th general election (GE15) if conditions are favourable to BN. 

Political analyst Azizi Safar said Ismail had spoken well as the most important element of the Umno-BN election machinery was the women's movement looking into voter sentiments. 

"To win an election, parties need to obtain the support of the majority," he said. 

"So the most important part of the election machinery are those who campaign for the support of voters. To what extent has this been done?"

Azizi also questioned BN's execution of face-to-face programmes with the people, and the level of its campaigns through other mediums such as social media.

"Have explanations been given to the people of the current issues?"

He said such sessions had been held three years after the 13th general election, to explain matters such as 1MDB and the goods and services tax. 

Nevertheless, he added, the political situation now was very different.

"Heading towards GE15, the issues that need to be tackled by government parties are the bread-and-butter issues," he said. 

"The fact of the matter is, in the current government there are parties that might clash with one another come GE15. 

"The old approach to campaigning can no longer be used." 

Azizi, a former Penang BN secretary with experience in the operation of election machineries, said a number of components were involved, such as the special machinery for election operations, the machinery that is constantly in motion, and the machinery that functions specifically during the election period. 

Election machineries can also be divided according to component parties, where Umno's would be the main pillar in the areas it contests. 

The same would then apply in areas contested by MCA and MIC. 

"Each parliamentary constituency will have a regional coordinating committee comprising all of the component parties and the Friends of BN," Azizi said. 

"Campaign coordination between BN parties is done at this stage." 

BN's machinery is known for its effectiveness in mobilising the movement of voters during elections. 

Its women's wing is particularly efficient in persuading voters to head to the polling stations. 

Such tactics worked well in Umno's favour at the Melaka and Johor state elections.

Political analyst Ahmad Atory Hussain meanwhile played down BN's chances if the coalition makes good on its vow to go solo in the upcoming general election. 

"It's all empty talk," he said. "The reality is that Umno will have a hard time winning with a comfortable margin if it does not work with Perikatan Nasional. 

"Umno today is not as strong as it was before GE14. It is weak, divided and confused." 

If Umno would work with PN and Pejuang to face the opposition bloc led by Pakatan Harapan, he said, it might stand a chance of winning the people's confidence. 

He said the biggest obstacle to cooperation between Umno and PN had been Zahid, who is facing criminal charges, and Najib Razak, who began serving his jail sentence on Aug 23 after losing his final SRC International appeal at the Federal Court. 

With them out of the picture, he said, party members and voters might find a renewed confidence in working with other Malay parties. 

Azizi meanwhile said that the most suitable time for an election would be after the 2023 budget is approved in Parliament, in mid-December. 

He said BN would benefit if the election is held after the budget is passed. 

"The finance minister is from Umno, and the government will prepare a lot of goodies for the people in the budget," he said. 

"For me, the best time for GE15 would be after Chinese New Year next year. No later than that."