Tuesday, May 24, 2022

25 days to herd immunity for adults in Malaysia?

Using official data, a tracker site makes a prediction for when the country might return to normal.

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Malaysia’s Covid-19 immunisation drive is set to achieve herd immunity for the country’s adult population by Sept 23, according to the forecast of a tracker website using data from the Covid-19 Immunisation Task Force.

The website at vax.tehcpeng.net, developed by Penang-based data analytics software engineer Lim Sheng Han, compiles data on the number of jabs administered as well as the fully inoculated to predict when the country will reach herd immunity.

It is possibly the first such website to provide a comprehensive view of Malaysia’s vaccination progress, which has earned global praise over its high rate of daily jabs despite a late start as well as issues on the supply of critical vaccines.

Based on the current progress of the National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK), the site estimates that it will take 25 days for 80% of adults to be fully vaccinated, and 73 days for 80% of the population to be double-jabbed.

This would mean that 80% of adults will have completed their vaccination regime by Sept 23, and 80% of the population by Nov 10.

Apart from tracking how many individuals have been fully or partially vaccinated, the site also shows according to percentage how many have registered for the immunisation programme and how many are still unregistered.

It also tracks the number of jabs administered per day and provides a breakdown of figures according to vaccine brand.

According to the site, the top five states racing to achieve herd immunity for their adult population are Negeri Sembilan (four days, by Sept 2), Perlis (17 days, by Sept 15), Terengganu (23 days, by Sept 21), Melaka (29 days, by Sept 27) and Penang (29 days, by Sept 27).

This excludes Labuan, the Klang Valley and Sarawak which have already fully vaccinated at least 80% of their adult population.

PICK was launched on Feb 24. Since then, more than 14 million doses of vaccine have been administered across the country, with over 61% of adults and nearly 44% of the population double-jabbed as of Aug 28.

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